2025 Black Friday

West Wing is on Netflix. You’re welcome.

The Big Picture: We Spent… A Lot

Black Friday 2025 online sales hit $11.8 billion, marking a 9.1% jump from last year's $10.8 billion. Between 10AM and 2PM, $12.5 million was spent every minute. A record $6.4 billion was also spent on Thanksgiving day. I guess a lot of people were dodging political conversations by buying things…

On Cyber Monday, we spent $14.25 billion, up 7.1% from last year. During peak spending 8PM to 10PM, $16 million was spent every minute.

The consultants at PWC expected holiday spending to decrease by 5%... 

Here's the Catch: Inflation is Still the Ultimate Party Crasher

According to Salesforce (via a CBS article), while spending went up, Americans bought 2% fewer items at checkout and order volumes dropped 1%. Average prices climbed 7% which accounted for the increased spending. While the shopping carts were lights, our credit scores were doing some heavy lifting. 

Buy Now, Pay Later: Tomorrow’s Hangover

On Black Friday alone, Americans put $747.5 million on BNPL services, a whopping 23% increase from last year. Cyber Monday hit over $1 billion in BNPL purchases, a modest 4.2% increase. 

Record spending numbers look great until you realize a huge chunk is borrowed money.

AI Slop Leads to Clicks

AI driven traffic was up 670% on Cyber Monday. While total users are still low, AI browsers and chat bots highlight deals and make recommendations for purchases. The robots are getting better (and more accessible?).

This massive 670% number shows the goal of OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and whoever else is making an AI chat bot. If you can get the most active users, you become the next google search. You become the place companies pay for ads. Unlike the Google v. Bing battle, the chat bot race is real and not a joke. The king of chat bots is far from decided; it just happens that Google is still in the ring. 

The Bottom Line

Black Friday 2025 broke records, but strip away the headlines and the picture gets murky. Yes, we spent more but we also bought fewer items because everything costs more. Online shopping continues its reign, but in-store isn't dead yet. And beneath it all, billions of dollars are being financed through BNPL, which means we're essentially mortgaging the holidays.

Deeper below the surface, a new battle for the king of the internet is brewing. AI browsers and chat bots are coming to replace Google search as we know it.

Debrief on Deck

Next week, we will talk about rate cuts and the recent fed meeting. It sounds dry… and it is. Jerome Powell wasn’t a personality hire.

As always, please reach out to us with any questions or comments you have by replying directly to this email.

Until then, stay the course.

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