Monthly Market Debrief

Stay the Course

Despite scary economic indicators, invest consistently and remember: time in the market beats timing the market. Depending on the day, it feels a bit like this:

Jerome Powell spoke on August 22nd. Here are a few notable quotes:

“The effects of tariffs on consumer prices are now clearly visible.”

“A reasonable base case is that the effects will be relatively short-lived—a one-time shift in the price level. Of course, "one-time" does not mean "all at once." It will continue to take time for tariff increases to work their way through supply chains and distribution networks.”

“Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” 

Translation: rate cut likely next month.

Company Highlight - Starbucks

This is brief and admittedly self-congratulatory.  

Exactly one year ago, I covered Starbucks’ new CEO Brian Niccol and speculated he'd bring his Taco Bell innovation to coffee. I predicted the "WheyBrew" - a protein-packed coffee drink.

WELL, GUESS WHAT I JUST SAW:

The only logical conclusion is Brian reads the Dollar Debrief. I refuse to believe Starbucks' thousands of employees thought of this independently.

Yes, their stock is down right now, but protein will bring the gains (literally and metaphorically).

Current Event - “You’re Fired”

Bad habits die hard. Trump went full Apprentice this month with two high-profile firings: the head of Bureau of Labor Statistics and a Federal Reserve Governor.

I can't cover both briefly, so let's focus on the Fed firing - it's more consequential for the economy.

Quick review: the Fed Board of Governors has 7 members serving 14-year terms. All votes count equally, and the staggered terms prevent any single president from controlling the board.

Trump has been pushing for rate cuts, but Fed independence limits his influence to nominating new governors and tweeting at “too late.” 

Two weeks ago, he fired Lisa Cook (who is suing to prevent it) for allegedly committing mortgage fraud by claiming two properties in different states as "primary residences" on loan applications.

Online debates center on whether this is a disqualifying offense or Trump digging up dirt to justify removing governors who won't comply with his wishes.

Both can be true.

The bigger issue is the assault on Fed independence. While administrations change and parties fight, the Fed maintains steady, unbiased monetary policy focused on inflation and employment. Their independence ensures they can make tough decisions, like triggering recessions to prevent stagflation, without political interference.

Here's the irony: Congress and the Executive branch have far more tools for economic growth through fiscal policy, subsidies, taxes, and regulation. But it's easier to blame the Fed than actually balance a budget.

The real risk isn't Lisa Cook's mortgage applications - it's the precedent that Fed governors serve at the pleasure of whoever occupies the White House. That's a dangerous game with the world's reserve currency.

Debrief on Deck

I don’t have a topic for next week, yet! Send me your questions, please. You can reply directly to this email!