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- What are the tariffs now?
It’s finally here. The 2025 college football season starts on Saturday. We can all stop pretending to like baseball.
What are the tariffs now?
Executive Power through Truthing (and sometimes Tweeting)
That’s the title of my future PhD thesis. If anyone steals this idea (since I’ll never actually write it), at least credit me the title.
In his first six months, Trump has tweeted, briefed, and executively ordered dozens of different tariffs for a wide range of reasons. He has claimed they would bring back U.S. manufacturing, pay down our debt, lower fentanyl trafficking, and even negotiate the end of wars. Whether they’re effective or not will be debated for decades. Most people have already chosen sides in that debate without 90% of the data, kind of like Lane Kiffin already preparing his arguments for why Ole Miss should be in the playoffs this season.
To compile all this data, I leaned on Reed Smith’s Trump 2.0 Tariff Tracker. I don’t know who Reed is, but their website is an organized, cited compilation of tariff data. Thank you, Reed.
All Countries:
10% base tariff on all imports to the U.S., unless exempted.
40% tariff on products deemed “transshipped” (rerouted through a third country to avoid tariffs), plus additional penalties and fines.
China
The fentanyl-related tariffs have been steady at 20% since March.
The 34% reciprocal tariffs announced on Liberation Day are delayed until November 12th.
In response to the escalating threats that hit 140% at one point, China flexed its leverage by restricting exports of not-so-rare earth metals and magnets. The 10% reciprocal tariff is a baseline while negotiations continue.
Mexico
0% on USMCA-compliant goods.
10% on potash (fertilizer salts).
25% on most other goods, excluding cars and car parts.
Canada
0% on USMCA-compliant goods.
10% on energy and potash.
35% on all other goods.
Threats remain for tariffs up to 250% on dairy.
The Canada and Mexico tariffs are rather confusing considering the existing trade agreement, United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, was accomplished during the first Trump administration. Trump, at the time said, “The USMCA is the largest, most significant, modern, and balanced trade agreement in history. All of our countries will benefit greatly." Now Canada is the 51st state and a trade enemy?
Japan
15% baseline tariff (down from 25%).
In exchange, Japan pledged $500B in U.S. investment, including agricultural purchases and 100 Boeing aircraft.
A strong deal on paper, but execution remains to be seen.
South Korea
15% baseline tariff.
Pledged $350B in U.S. investment and $100B in energy purchases.
This despite Trump already renegotiating the KORUS FTA (Korea-United States Free Trade Agreement) during his first term. Past agreements seem irrelevant now.
EU
15% baseline.
50% on steel, aluminum, and copper.
Deal included $750B in energy purchases and $600B in investments.
Skepticism remains, since the European Commission President can’t unilaterally force member states to follow through.
Big Picture
After Liberation Day, we were promised “90 deals in 90 days.” Instead, delays dominated. Only in July did big deals start materializing. The language of the deals is… beautiful. Some are even saying they’re the best words. If even half of them happen, I’ll be impressed.
My frustration is the lack of strategy. Tariffs shifted daily, driven by posts, offhand comments, and contradictory cabinet statements.
We can all agree: China takes advantage of U.S. consumers with subsidies, state-backed manufacturing, and policies that crush competition. Rather than build a coalition of allies to counter China, Trump opened trade fights with everyone at once. Instead of partnering with Canada, Mexico, and South America to build a regional manufacturing hub, he tried to reinvent the wheel.
That scattershot approach exposed just how much leverage China holds through its dominance in rare earth metals and magnets. While Trump has threatened 50% tariffs on India for buying Russian oil, he’s avoided similar threats against China, despite them being the largest buyer of Russian gas and oil.
Where We Are Now
With the market settling around a 15% baseline tariff, we wait. Inflation, jobs, manufacturing, and investment data will tell the long-term story.
I’m cautiously optimistic, but I’m not holding my breath.
Debrief on Deck
Next week, we talk about property taxes. Why do we pay them? Are we property owners or just renters with these annual payments to the government?
As always, please reach out to us with any questions or comments you have. You can reply directly to this email or find us on Instagram.
Until then, stay the course.
Wilson