Did the White House lie?

The frost warnings have started in North Carolina. It is winter. Bundle up.

I was going to talk about stable coins this week, but I had to adjust after seeing this post from the official White House X (twitter) account.

I wouldn’t have thought twice about it if it weren’t for the last line. My October Monthly Market Debrief came out the day before, so the September inflation report was fresh in my mind. The September Inflation Rate was 3%, not 2.5%. This blatant lie set me off. So let’s talk about all of it:

September Inflation Rate

The Consumer Price Index came in at 3% year over year increase for September 2025 not 2.5%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) are both delayed due to the government shutdown. So what could they possibly be referring to?

I thought, let me go to what they put as sources: Walmart and Fox News Report. 

Just to dot all my “t’s” and cross all my “i’s”, I googled it. Walmart doesn’t release its own inflation report.

So it’s gotta be some Fox News Report. 

First of all, Fox News Report isn’t an organization. It’s Fox News Channel, Fox Business, or any of the other subsidiaries - Fox News Report isn’t one of them. I guess it makes sense that they cite a non-existent entity for their fake numbers.

Secondably, the Fox Business report correctly cited the 3% inflation report, not 2.5%. 

The post is correct that the report was below the analysts expectations of 3.1%. So I guess that’s accurate.

At the end of the day, it’s easier to lie than to correctly say “Inflation is back to the same level as when President Trump took office, 3%.”

It’s not fun to try and explain why the downward trend for inflation has been reversed…

Thanksgiving Dinner

If you’ve seen this claim that Thanksgiving is 25% cheaper than last year, you’ve likely seen the pretty huge caveat. The Walmart Thanksgiving Meal deal includes far fewer items this year.

The 2024 Walmart deal served 8 people for less than $7 per person. Here is what was included:

Pretty good spread!

In 2025, Walmart modified the deal to serve 10 people for less than $4 per person! Here is what is included:

So let’s review a few key points that differentiates 2025 from 2024:

• The turkey is $0.97 per pound and claimed to be the cheapest since 2019 even though 2024’s turkey was $0.88 per pound…

• They replaced the Sweet Hawaiian Rolls with Great Value Dinner Rolls (criminal)

• Here is what they added in 2025: 

  • Turkey Stuffing

  • Cranberries

  • Baby Carrots 

  • 3 boxes of Macaroni and Cheese 

  • 1 can of Green Beans

• Here is what they removed in 2025:

  • 1 can of Cream of Mushroom Soup

  • Cranberry Sauce 

  • 1 Pecan Pie

  • Whipped Topping

  • Mini Marshmallows 

  • 2 boxes of Corn Muffin Mix 

  • Poultry Seasoning 

  • Chicken Broth

  • 3 Sweet Potatoes

  • 1 Yellow Onion

  • 1 Celery Stalk 

• They removed the ingredients to make Sweet Potato Casserole

So yes, on a per person cost, 2025 is cheaper (by more than 25% for the record), but that is only if you feed more people with less food… 

But it is easier to just take the headline of “cheaper” and leave off the “cheaper, if everyone eats less food.” 

“Price for a dozen eggs dropped 79%”

Retail egg prices are down 44% from a March 2025 peak, not 79%.

Wholesale egg prices are down 79%, but those are the prices paid by grocery stores, not you. This is the price of a 30-dozen case, not “a dozen” as the image says. 

“Retail egg prices being down 44% is great! But it’s not as good at 79%. Who cares that it’s not ‘technically’ true. What loser actually looks this up in their free time!?” - the White House intern who made this, probably.

Gasoline dropped $3/gallon

This is true! I mean, kind of. They should have said “national average of gasoline dropped BELOW $3/gallon for the lowest grade,” but hey, at least I was able to verify this is accurate.* 

*You have to download the excel and only look at regular conventional fuel, not all types. 

I wouldn’t be writing about any of this if it wasn’t for the blatant lie about the September inflation report. The other three items are all standard politicians picking and choosing the numbers that make them look good. I don’t like it, but I understand it. I draw the line at the hard economic data that can’t be fudged.

This is black and white. Inflation is rising. If we aren’t honest about the facts, we won’t develop coherent strategies to fix it. The tweet starts with “Despite Democrat lies” and then proceeds to lie! It is astonishing how stupid this is.

If they are willing to lie to us about something so easily verifiable, what else are they lying to us about?

Our government (governments in general) has always lied, like Ryan from the Office.

It certainly didn’t start with this administration, but if you called out lies during the last administration, you better be calling it out in this one as well. 

This goes beyond immature AI videos. If our highest elected officials are posting incorrect and inconsistent data about our institutions and economic situation, it will erode trust in the United States and hurt us economically for decades to come.

We must expect more from our politicians, especially the President and White House.

Debrief on Deck

Next week, we will talk about stable coins! Hopefully. You never know when something is going to piss me off.

As always, please reach out to us with any questions or comments by replying directly to this email.

Until then, stay the course.

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